Weekly review of LME base metals markets covering aluminium, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, analysing price action, spreads, warehouse stocks, cancelled warrants, and the macro and physical drivers behind trading activity during the week ending 29 May 2026.
LME Nickel closed at $18,540/mt on 21 May, up over $2,200 from its mid-March low. Indonesia accounts for ~60% of supply; and the market has run a surplus for four years. That suggests oversupply, yet physical premiums and warrant data point to tighter conditions, defying the fundamentals.
Weekly review of LME base metals markets covering aluminium, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, analysing price action, spreads, warehouse stocks, cancelled warrants, and the macro and physical drivers behind trading activity during the week ending 22 May 2026.
Weekly review of LME base metals markets covering aluminium, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, analysing price action, spreads, warehouse stocks, cancelled warrants, and the macro and physical drivers behind trading activity during the week ending 29 May 2026.
LME Nickel closed at $18,540/mt on 21 May, up over $2,200 from its mid-March low. Indonesia accounts for ~60% of supply; and the market has run a surplus for four years. That suggests oversupply, yet physical premiums and warrant data point to tighter conditions, defying the fundamentals.
Carbon pricing is reshaping aluminium markets. As CBAM introduces a measurable cost on emissions, high-carbon metal becomes less competitive while low-carbon supply gains value. The result is a structural shift in pricing, trade flows and the emergence of a green premium within global markets.
Treatment and refining charges across copper, aluminium, and nickel have reached levels that make new Western processing investment economically indefensible. The political case for reshoring is not wrong. The timeline implied by current economics is.
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Weekly review of LME base metals markets covering aluminium, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, analysing price action, spreads, warehouse stocks, cancelled warrants, and the macro and physical drivers behind trading activity during the week ending 22 May 2026.
Weekly review of LME base metals markets covering aluminium, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, analysing price action, spreads, warehouse stocks, cancelled warrants, and the macro and physical drivers behind trading activity during the week ending 15 May 2026.
Nickel markets are focused on Indonesia’s quota cuts – but tightening sulphur supply is the real story. Disruptions in Iran, the Gulf and China, combined with declining hydrocarbon output, are constraining availability and reshaping the market balance.
Aluminium and copper are reacting differently to the same conflict. Aluminium faces real supply shocks – force majeure, halted smelters, surging premiums and constrained output – creating a price floor Copper’s rise reflects risk pricing amid ample supply, leaving it vulnerable to rapid reversal.
Understanding premiums, discounts and the associated "basis risk" in metals markets.
A high-level overview of the importance of LME brands and the listing process.
Why pricing material based on a reputable reference price offers increased transparency, efficiency and optionality.
A detailed overview of price formation via bilateral negotiations, price reporting agencies, physical trading platforms and futures exchanges.
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